Odds: DraftKings via ESPN (no free FanDuel feed found); check your FanDuel price before betting. Built Thu Oct 15, 7:09 AM MT. Our estimates come from a simple model (season stats blended with the market), not guarantees.
TONIGHT · LeanSEA @ DEN · 6:15 PM MT
Over 40.5 (-118)SEA @ DEN · Thu Oct 15 6:15 PM MT
Implied 54%Our est. 62%
Bet $20 to win $16.95
Projection 44.4 pts vs total 40.5 (avg of each offense vs the other defense, injury-adjusted) — ESPN standings
DEN 19.4 scored / 22.2 allowed; SEA 26.8 / 21.0; league avg 23.4 — ESPN standings
TDs/g: DEN 1.8, SEA 3.0; 3rd-down %: DEN 33.8, SEA 29.8 — ESPN team stats
Weather: 47°F, wind 1 mph, precip 0% — Open-Meteo
Starters out/doubtful: CB1 Pat Surtain II OUT — ESPN injuries
Not high-probability: our estimate 62% is below the 70% bar; best edge on the board vs implied 54%.
NFL this week · 14 games
High-probability (1) · $20 each, target −150 to −250
Over 40.5 (-102)CAR @ PHI · Sun Oct 18 11:00 AM MT
Implied 50%Our est. 75%
Bet $20 to win $19.61
Projection 49.1 pts vs total 40.5 (avg of each offense vs the other defense, injury-adjusted) — ESPN standings
PHI 18.4 scored / 22.4 allowed; CAR 30.2 / 27.2; league avg 23.4 — ESPN standings
TDs/g: PHI 2.2, CAR 3.2; 3rd-down %: PHI 36.8, CAR 38.0 — ESPN team stats
Weather: 58°F, wind 5 mph, precip 3% — Open-Meteo
Long shots ($10)
ARI moneyline (+600)ARI @ LAR · Sun Oct 18 2:05 PM MT
Implied 14%Our est. 24%
Bet $10 to win $60.00
ARI scores 21.6 pts/g (#23 NFL, -8% vs avg 23.4); LAR allows 24.0 (#20 fewest, +3% vs avg) — ESPN standings
ARI allows 32.4 pts/g (#32 fewest) vs LAR scoring 23.8 (#13) — ESPN standings
Offense 315 yds/g (#24) vs LAR 434 (#1); TDs/g 2.4 vs 3.0; turnover diff +2 vs -3 — ESPN team stats
LAR is 1-2 at home; ARI 1-2 on the road. Weather: 82°F, wind 7 mph, precip 0% — ESPN/Open-Meteo
TEN moneyline (+275)TEN @ IND · Sun Oct 18 11:00 AM MT
Implied 26%Our est. 33%
Bet $10 to win $27.50
TEN scores 11.6 pts/g (#32 NFL, -50% vs avg 23.4); IND allows 27.6 (#27 fewest, +18% vs avg) — ESPN standings
TEN allows 21.8 pts/g (#10 fewest) vs IND scoring 24.8 (#11) — ESPN standings
Offense 262 yds/g (#32) vs IND 305 (#26); TDs/g 1.2 vs 2.2; turnover diff -5 vs -6 — ESPN team stats
IND is 1-1 at home; TEN 0-2 on the road. Weather: indoor/dome — ESPN/Open-Meteo
NYJ moneyline (+270)NYJ @ NE · Sun Oct 18 11:00 AM MT
Implied 26%Our est. 32%
Bet $10 to win $27.00
NYJ scores 18.6 pts/g (#27 NFL, -21% vs avg 23.4); NE allows 18.8 (#4 fewest, -19% vs avg) — ESPN standings
NYJ allows 19.2 pts/g (#5 fewest) vs NE scoring 22.0 (#19) — ESPN standings
Offense 311 yds/g (#25) vs NE 382 (#8); TDs/g 2.0 vs 2.6; turnover diff +3 vs -5 — ESPN team stats
Own starters out/doubtful: RB1 Breece Hall Doubtful, WR2 Adonai Mitchell Doubtful — ESPN injuries + depth chart (model −1.7 pts)
NE is 2-0 at home; NYJ 1-2 on the road. Weather: 56°F, wind 8 mph, precip 0% — ESPN/Open-Meteo
All NFL games & lines
Thu 6:15 PM SEA @ DEN SEA -2.5 · O/U 40.5 · ML SEA -142 / DEN +120 (DraftKings) · 47°F, wind 1 mph, precip 0%
Sun 7:30 AM HOU @ JAX JAX -2.5 · O/U 42.5 · ML HOU +120 / JAX -142 (DraftKings) · 56°F, wind 11 mph, precip 27%
Sun 11:00 AM CHI @ ATL CHI -1.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML CHI -115 / ATL -105 (DraftKings) · indoor/dome
Sun 11:00 AM BAL @ CLE BAL -5.5 · O/U 42.5 · ML BAL -258 / CLE +210 (DraftKings) · 58°F, wind 11 mph, precip 0%
Sun 11:00 AM TEN @ IND IND -7 · O/U 44.5 · ML TEN +275 / IND -345 (DraftKings) · indoor/dome
Sun 11:00 AM NYJ @ NE NE -7.5 · O/U 43.5 · ML NYJ +270 / NE -340 (DraftKings) · 56°F, wind 8 mph, precip 0%
Sun 11:00 AM NO @ NYG NO -1.5 · O/U 45.5 · ML NO -112 / NYG -108 (DraftKings) · 58°F, wind 6 mph, precip 0%
Sun 11:00 AM CAR @ PHI CAR -1.5 · O/U 40.5 · ML CAR -115 / PHI -105 (DraftKings) · 58°F, wind 5 mph, precip 3%
Sun 11:00 AM PIT @ TB PIT -2.5 · O/U 39.5 · ML PIT -148 / TB +124 (DraftKings) · 80°F, wind 20 mph, precip 1%
Sun 2:05 PM ARI @ LAR LAR -12.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML ARI +600 / LAR -900 (DraftKings) · 82°F, wind 7 mph, precip 0%